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Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index April 7, 2017 David Wasserman and Ally Flinn The Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 20th anniversary edition of the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for all 50 states and 435 Congressional districts in the country, compiled especially for the Report by POLIDATA®. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. We have released new PVI scores following every election since 1996 and every round of redistricting since 2001, each time taking into account the prior two presidential elections. This 2017 release has updated our PVI scores to incorporate the results of the November 2016 presidential election. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN.

View the full 2017 Partisan Voter Index in three different formats below: 2017 Partisan Voter Index Scores by Congressional District The 2016 Presidential Election by Congressional District In 2016, for the second election in a row, the Republican presidential nominee carried the majority of congressional districts while losing the national popular vote. President Trump carried 230 districts to Hillary Clinton’s 205, up four from Mitt Romney’s tally of 226 districts in 2012. This helps explain why House Republicans won of all votes to House Democrats’ 48 percent in 2016 yet won 47 more seats. The House has become well-sorted out: only 35 of 435 districts 'crossed over' to vote for presidential and House candidates of opposite parties, down from 108 in 1996.

Today, there are 23 Republicans sitting in districts Clinton carried, and 12 Democrats sitting in districts Trump carried. However, this is slightly higher than the record low of 26 'crossover districts' following the 2012 election. Despite a similar overall breakdown to 2012, there was considerable change: 36 of 435 districts switched partisan preferences at the top of the ticket. There are 21 districts that voted for both President Obama in 2012 and President Trump in 2016, including 12 held by Republicans and nine held by Democrats. There are also 15 districts that voted for both Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016—all held by Republicans.

The Decline of the “Swing Seat” The most striking House statistic in the last 20 years may be the decline of competitive districts, places where members have the greatest political incentives to work on a bipartisan basis. In 1997, our Partisan Voter Index scored 164 districts between D+5 and R+5, more than a third of the House, and greater than both the number of strongly Democratic and strongly Republican seats. After the hyper-polarized 2016 election, there are only 72 districts between D+5 and R+5—less than one sixth of the House and a 56 percent decline since 1997. This also represents a 20 percent decline from just four years ago, when there were 90 swing seats. Leap office 2000 download. The Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat, 1997-2017 ​ Redistricting is only responsible for a small portion of this swing seat decimation. In many minimally altered districts, the electorate has simply become much more homogeneous. For example, the boundaries of West Virginia’s 2nd CD have barely changed since 1997, but its PVI score has shifted from EVEN to R+17 as its voters have moved away from the national Democratic brand.

Likewise, Albuquerque’s migration to the left has bumped the PVI score of New Mexico’s 1st CD from R+1 to D+7. Maison de m bara gamer. The Cook PVI illustrates how voters’ natural geographical sorting from election to election, much more than redistricting and gerrymandering, has driven the polarization of districts over the last two decades. Our ten unique sets of PVI scores over the past 20 years give us a powerful tool to isolate and quantify the impacts of sorting and redistricting on the makeup of House districts. The Cook Political Report has released updated PVI scores in six odd-numbered years following presidential elections: 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2017. We also released updated PVI scores in four even-numbered years following redistricting: 2002 (after the 2000 Census), 2004 (after mid-decade redistricting in Texas), 2012 (after the 2010 Census) and 2016 (after new court-ordered maps in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia). As it turns out, gerrymandering wasn’t as much of a factor in the House’s polarization as some redistricting reform advocates might argue.